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Monitoring gold-to-silver ratio steadiness provides the answer
July 27, 2020
Gold and silver have enjoyed an extraordinary 12 months. On an intraday basis, Comex gold has complex 31% from its mid-March backside; silver a stunning 99%. Three-times efficiency of the white steel compared to the yellow is harking back to 2011 when silver made a mad sprint at according to ounce in April of that year. However, there are growing indicators that both safe haven metals are overbought. Momentum will most likely lift gold to higher ranges but I'm less positive about silver.
On the sure facet, remaining week the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR) broke beneath the long-term development of higher-lows established from its April 2011 low – it is a bullish indication for silver. The 3-month beta of silver relative to gold has also been incessantly emerging from less than solidarity in mid-May to over 3.0 via Friday’s shut. This means that silver gains are significantly amplified with respect to its treasured steel cousin as evidenced by the efficiency from the March lows. But will this continue?
Monitoring the stableness of the GSR is a formidable methodology for confirming ratio and worth native extrema. A measure of steadiness is the volatility of the ratio over two different time periods. Volatility for this research is taken to be the usual deviation of the ratio divided through its mean over a given time expressed as a percent. For gold ratios, I've discovered 3- and 1-month periods to be useful and believe volatilities exceeding 4% to represent "instability."
As shown in Figure 1, plotting the 3- and 1-month volatilities (Y-axis and X-axis respectively) ends up in a stability lambda-Map©. Connecting the marketplace day-to-market day issues produces a "stability trajectory." By this system, the lower-left quadrant is the domain of "very stable" ratios; and the upper-right, "unstable" ratios. The different two quadrants are regarded as transitional.
Figure 1 – Gold-to-Silver Ratio Stability lambda-Map©
KEY INDICATION: Major trajectory turns in the unstable quadrant usually occur when ratio and worth are near their respective extremum. These highs (lows) most often grasp via a period of ratio stabilization (normally weeks or months). Major turns are a confirming indicator - anticipatory, coincident or lagging but generally within several market days of the top (low).
Figure 1 illustrates two examples that experience passed off this yr. The trajectory starts February 14 all through a quiescent time within the very strong quadrant. On March 11, The World Health Organization pronounces covid-19 a pandemic and the trajectory rapidly enters the unstable quadrant (first crimson arrow, volatilities>4%). Silver value makes a low and the GSR ratings a prime March 18 adopted by a major flip 3 (+3) market days in a while March 23.
The ratio begins to stabilize as it enters the upper-left transitional quadrant (green arrow) but then returns to the volatile area. A 2nd main flip occurs June 1 coincident with a silver high and GSR low. Re-stabilization follows (observe July 7) after which it is off to the races once more (2nd pink arrow).
The trajectory is these days within the unstable quadrant but as of Friday’s close, is decelerating (notice compression of data issues). This would possibly point out we are indeed near a best for silver and a 3rd confirming turn is within the making. Let’s see how the trajectory proceeds this week.
Please follow me on twitter @Eurekaminer for updates of Figure 1. When the foremost flip occurs, it's recreation over for silver – no less than for a while.